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题目
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
翻译
以下文字出自Sartorian公司(生产男士服装)新上任的副总裁的备忘录：
“五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的供货渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了羊毛外衣的生产。现在，我们有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该会卖得很好：因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。而且，由于过去五年中多数种类的服装价格每年都在上涨，消费者应该愿意花比五年前高的多的价格购买羊毛外衣，从而我们公司的利润将会上升。”
写一篇文章，阐述需要哪些具体的证据来评价这个论证过程，并解释这些证据如何削弱或强化这个论证过程。
分析
前提：our company profits will increase 我们公司的利润将会上升
结论：we should resume production 我们应该重新开始生产
论据：
1. five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats
[译]五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了羊毛外衣的生产
2. now that we have a new fabric supplier
[译]现在有了新的毛料供应商
3. we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand
[译]我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求
4. this coat should sell very well
[译]这种外衣应该卖得很好
5. since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago
[译]由于过去五年中多数种类的服装价格每年都在上涨，消费者应该愿意花比五年前高的多的价格购买羊毛外衣
提纲(可攻击点)
1、除了毛料供应问题，还有哪些其他因素(比如，市场需求、竞争、客户支付能力等)对生产销售情况有影响?
2、仅根据Sartorian公司的主要竞争对手不再生产能否判断消费者对羊毛外衣有很迫切的需求?都有哪些因素(比如：羊毛外衣的销量不佳、羊毛外衣的利润太少，等)会导致其竞争对手停止生产?
3、现在的服装市场和五年前相比，变化是否明显?顾客是否愿意付比五年前高的价格来购买羊毛外衣?
4、即使消费者对羊毛外衣有迫切需求，并且羊毛外衣的价格也很高，重新生产羊毛外衣公司的利润就一定能提高吗?公司的利润与哪些因素(比如：成本、价格、销售量，等)有关?
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